According to news from Channelstv, the International Monetary Fund has predicted that the
Nigerian economy will grow by 0.6% in 2017, effectively lifting the country out
of an officially declared recession.
In the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report released on
Tuesday, Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product is expected to increase
marginally by 0.6% with Consumer Prices rising by 17.1%.
Nigeria’s Current Account Balance is however forecast to
slump further by 0.4% next year.
According to the Bretton Woods institution, the projected
increase in global growth in 2017 to 3.4% hinges crucially on rising growth in
emerging market and developing economies.
Beyond 2017, IMF expects global growth to gradually
increase by 3.8% in 2021.
This recovery in global activity, which is expected to be
driven entirely by emerging market and developing economies, is premised on the
normalization of growth rates in countries like Nigeria, Russia, South Africa,
Latin America, and parts of the Middle East.
Sub-Saharan
economies
In its spot assessment of sub-Saharan Africa, IMF sees
increasing multi-speed growth.
In Nigeria for example, this revision was based on the
contracted economic activity followed by disruptions to oil production, foreign
currency shortages resulting from lower oil receipts, lower power generation,
and weak investor confidence.
It says GDP projections in South Africa remains flat.
The report added that policy uncertainty in the country
is making the adjustment to weaker terms of trade more difficult and that South
Africa won’t see any modest recovery till next year as the commodity and
drought shocks dissipate and power supply improves.
Angola is similarly adjusting to a sharp drop in oil
export receipts. It is not expected to grow this year and will experience only
feeble growth next year.
By contrast, several of the region’s non-resource
exporters, including Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Senegal, are expected
to continue to expand very robustly at more than 5% in 2016, benefiting from
low oil prices and enjoying healthy private consumption and investment growth
rates.
Off the mark?
For Nigeria, there have been several predictions about
when the country’s economy will turn the corner.
Global credit rating agency, Moody’s, also predicts that
Nigeria will be out of recession in 2017.
A Senior Vice President at Moody’s, Aurelien Mali said
they expect Nigeria to contain pressures on its public finances in the short
term.
IMF, Nigeria, Recession, 2017The Governor of the Central
Bank of Nigeria, Godwin Emefiele a few weeks ago however projected that the
nation’s economy will exit the recession by the end of this year.
He says this follows the various measures put in place by
the Federal Government and monetary authorities becomes manifest.
One of such measures he listed includes the establishment
of a bridge fund to stimulate the economy. In his words, “The worst is over…”
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